Key takeaways
- Intel stock fell 28.58% on October 30 to close at $65.76, per Yahoo Finance.
- Intel guides Q4 revenue of $15.0B to $16.0B and a 38.0% non-GAAP gross margin, per its release.
- TechCrunch reports the drop cut the value of the U.S. government's Intel stake by about $12 billion.
Intel stock fell 28.58% on Friday, October 30, closing at $65.76 after a close of $92.07 the day before, according to Yahoo Finance. The drop came a day after Intel reported third-quarter results and gave a weaker outlook for the fourth quarter. It also cut the value of the U.S. government's Intel stake by about $12 billion, TechCrunch reports.
Intel beat on the quarter, so the sell-off is about what it said comes next. We covered the results in Intel earnings: revenue up 21% to $16.5B, but Q4 outlook is lower.
Why Intel stock fell
Intel's earnings release gives three numbers for the fourth quarter:
| Fourth-quarter guidance | Amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.0B to $16.0B |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 38.0% |
| Non-GAAP earnings per share | $0.25 |
Third-quarter revenue was $16.5 billion, so the range points to a decline. TechCrunch says analysts had expected about $17 billion for the fourth quarter, and that gross margin is guided down from 43%.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan blamed the PC market. TechCrunch quotes him saying customers "began signaling a PC slowdown based on the memory prices and availability." The theory is that AI companies are buying up memory and other components, which raises PC prices and cuts PC sales. Intel's PC unit fell 5% in the third quarter.
Data center is growing, but supply is tight
The AI side of the business did well. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion in the quarter, per Intel. TechCrunch adds that growth is limited by factory capacity and by how many outside customers Intel can win from TSMC. It reports that one Arizona fab is running and the next is not expected until 2028.
What happened to the stock
After hours on October 30, Intel traded at $64.89, down another 1.32%, per Yahoo Finance. TechCrunch says Intel is still up more than 70% for 2026 despite the fall, and that the U.S. government took a 10% stake in the company more than a year ago. Nvidia, which also holds a stake, dipped slightly.
Intel's release gives no cash flow guidance for the fourth quarter. TechCrunch's claim that Intel expects no positive cash flow is its own reading and we could not match it to the release.
What to watch
The next test is whether PC makers confirm the slowdown when they report, and whether Intel adds outside chip-making customers before its next fab opens.